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Prediction for CME (2024-01-22T10:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-01-22T10:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28689/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Wide CME with distinctive bright core (likely h-alpha emission) seen to the S/SE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME is associated with a large filament eruption stretching from ~S45E10 to ~S20W20, centered around S35W10. The source eruption is best seen in SDO/AIA 304 starting around 2024-01-22T08:30Z. Associated dimming (SDO/AIA 193), brightening (SDO/AIA 304), and post-eruptive arcades (SDO/AIA 193, 171, and 211) are visible. The filament appears to deflect southward as it erupts. Possible arrival signature: a change in the solar wind pattern, with B total sharply increasing from under 3 nT to over 6nT, followed by another jump to just above 10nT around 14Z. There is also rotation of two magnetic field components, that after 14Z potentially resembles signature of a glancing blow/arrival of a flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-25T05:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-25T17:20Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2024 Jan 23 1552 UTC
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images starting from yesterday 10:36 UTC. It is associated with a filament eruption close to the solar meridian and is likely to be geo-effective. It is estimated to arrive at the second half of 25 Jan.
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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #
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Lead Time: 37.08 hour(s)
Difference: -11.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2024-01-23T16:30Z

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